Partly stale · checked 7:44 AM FAA NAS status 224 h staleForecast cycle 1 hLightning 224 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 3 minFAA flight data 3 min

FAA NAS status is stale (224 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (224 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant Resolved Delay PHX departures

Model lowers Phoenix departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 29%, near normal

Current state: Resolved at 3:57 AM MST
Started: Sat Oct 31, 2:00 AM MST
Latest activity: Sat Oct 31, 3:57 AM MST
Updates: 2

Create monitor View PHX Flights at PHX

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

Initial Forecast Sat Oct 31, 2:55 AM MST

Model forecasts 51% delay risk for Phoenix departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

Tailodds’ model gives the 167 departures scheduled from Phoenix 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 51% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 2:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

Evidence for this update

Target	PHX departures 9 AM–noon 2026-10-31 (15+ min late)
Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)	51% over 167 flights
Forecast cycle · horizon	Sat Oct 31, 2:00 AM MST · 6.1 h ahead
Model version	famB-sd-v4i
Source event time	Sat Oct 31, 2:00 AM MST
Ingested	Sat Oct 31, 2:55 AM MST
Published here	Sat Oct 31, 2:55 AM MST (2026-10-31 09:55 UTC)
Sources	Tailodds forecast
Provenance	forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1

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Resolution Forecast Sat Oct 31, 3:57 AM MST