tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 224 h staleForecast cycle 1 hLightning 224 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 3 minFAA flight data 3 min

FAA NAS status is stale (224 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (224 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant Resolved Delay PHX departures

Model lowers Phoenix departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 70%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
6
Create monitor View PHXFlights at PHX

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 53% delay risk for Phoenix departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 52 departures scheduled from Phoenix 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 53% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 36%. From the 10:00 PM MST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetPHX departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-30 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)53% over 52 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Oct 29, 10:00 PM MST · 22.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-30 05:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Updated model puts Phoenix departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday at 66%

    What changed: 53% → 66% since the 10:00 PM MST forecast (model changed)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 58 departures scheduled from Phoenix 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 66% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 40%. From the 10:00 AM MST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetPHX departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-30 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)66% over 58 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Oct 30, 10:00 AM MST · 10.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-30 17:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. De-escalation Forecast

    Updated model puts Phoenix departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday at 60%

    What changed: 66% → 60% since the 10:00 AM MST forecast (model changed)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 58 departures scheduled from Phoenix 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 60% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 40%. From the 12:00 PM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetPHX departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-30 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)60% over 58 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Oct 30, 12:00 PM MST · 7.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-30 20:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  4. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Phoenix departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 69%

    What changed: 60% → 69% since the 12:00 PM MST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 58 departures scheduled from Phoenix 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 69% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 44%. From the 4:00 PM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetPHX departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-30 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)69% over 58 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Oct 30, 4:00 PM MST · 4.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-30 23:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  5. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Phoenix departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 79%

    What changed: 69% → 79% since the 4:00 PM MST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 58 departures scheduled from Phoenix 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 79% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 46%. From the 5:00 PM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetPHX departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-30 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)79% over 58 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Oct 30, 5:00 PM MST · 2.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-31 01:27 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  6. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers Phoenix departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 70%

    What changed: 79% → 70% since the 5:00 PM MST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 59 departures scheduled from Phoenix 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 70% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 48%. From the 8:00 PM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetPHX departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-30 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)70% over 59 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Oct 30, 8:00 PM MST · 0.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-31 03:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?

Closed Fri Oct 30, 9:00 PM MST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.