tailodds FORECAST
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Forecast Major Resolved Delay PHX departures

Model raises Phoenix departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 77%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
5
Create monitor View PHXFlights at PHX

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 56% delay risk for Phoenix departures 6–9 PM Friday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 110 departures scheduled from Phoenix 6–9 PM Friday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 37%. From the 7:00 PM MST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetPHX departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-30 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)56% over 110 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Oct 29, 7:00 PM MST · 22.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-30 02:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Updated model puts Phoenix departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday at 63%

    What changed: 56% → 63% since the 7:00 PM MST forecast (model changed)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 111 departures scheduled from Phoenix 6–9 PM Friday an average 63% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 38%. From the 7:00 AM MST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetPHX departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-30 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)63% over 111 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Oct 30, 7:00 AM MST · 10.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-30 14:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. Escalation Forecast

    Updated model puts Phoenix departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday at 77%

    What changed: 63% → 77% since the 7:00 AM MST forecast (model changed)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 111 departures scheduled from Phoenix 6–9 PM Friday an average 77% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 41%. From the 9:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetPHX departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-30 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)77% over 111 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Oct 30, 9:00 AM MST · 8.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-30 16:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  4. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers Phoenix departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 65%

    What changed: 77% → 65% since the 9:00 AM MST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 111 departures scheduled from Phoenix 6–9 PM Friday an average 65% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 43%. From the 2:00 PM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetPHX departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-30 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)65% over 111 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Oct 30, 2:00 PM MST · 3.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-30 21:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  5. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Phoenix departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 77%

    What changed: 65% → 77% since the 2:00 PM MST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 112 departures scheduled from Phoenix 6–9 PM Friday an average 77% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 48%. From the 4:00 PM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetPHX departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-30 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)77% over 112 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Oct 30, 4:00 PM MST · 1.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-30 23:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?

Closed Fri Oct 30, 6:00 PM MST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.