tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 232 h staleForecast cycle 2 hLightning 232 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 2 minFAA flight data 3 min

FAA NAS status is stale (232 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (232 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant Resolved Delay MIA departures

Model lowers Miami departure delay risk 6–9 PM Sunday to 68%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
5
Create monitor View MIAFlights at MIA

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 58% delay risk for Miami departures 6–9 PM Sunday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 160 departures scheduled from Miami 6–9 PM Sunday an average 58% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 36%. From the 9:00 PM EDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMIA departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-01 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)58% over 160 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Oct 31, 9:00 PM EDT · 20.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-01 02:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?
  2. Escalation Forecast

    Updated model puts Miami departure delay risk 6–9 PM Sunday at 66%

    What changed: 58% → 66% since the 9:00 PM EDT forecast (model changed)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 161 departures scheduled from Miami 6–9 PM Sunday an average 66% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 40%. From the 8:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMIA departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-01 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)66% over 161 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 1, 8:00 AM EST · 8.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-01 14:27 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?
  3. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Miami departure delay risk 6–9 PM Sunday to 80%

    What changed: 66% → 80% since the 8:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 161 departures scheduled from Miami 6–9 PM Sunday an average 80% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 46%. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMIA departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-01 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)80% over 161 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 1, 11:00 AM EST · 6.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-01 16:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?
  4. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers Miami departure delay risk 6–9 PM Sunday to 78%

    What changed: 80% → 78% since the 11:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 161 departures scheduled from Miami 6–9 PM Sunday an average 78% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 55%. From the 2:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMIA departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-01 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)78% over 161 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 1, 2:00 PM EST · 2.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-01 20:27 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?
  5. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers Miami departure delay risk 6–9 PM Sunday to 68%

    What changed: 78% → 68% since the 2:00 PM EST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 152 departures scheduled from Miami 6–9 PM Sunday an average 68% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 52%. From the 5:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMIA departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-01 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)68% over 152 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 1, 5:00 PM EST · 0.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-01 22:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?

Closed Sun Nov 1, 6:01 PM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.