Model lowers expected cancellations to about 9 among Fort Lauderdale departures 6–9 PM Sunday
- Current state
- Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 6
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
-
Initial Forecast
Model expects about 10 cancellations among Fort Lauderdale departures 6–9 PM Sunday
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 86 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Sunday to be cancelled (12%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 9:00 PM EDT forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target FLL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-01 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~10.5 over 86 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Oct 31, 9:00 PM EDT · 20.6 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3 Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-01 02:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 5 among Fort Lauderdale departures 6–9 PM Sunday
What changed: about 10 → 5 expected cancellations since the 9:00 PM EDT forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 86 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Sunday to be cancelled (6%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target FLL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-01 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~5.4 over 86 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 1, 2:00 AM EST · 14.6 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3 Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-01 08:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Updated model now expects about 10 among Fort Lauderdale departures 6–9 PM Sunday
What changed: about 5 → 10 expected cancellations since the 2:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 88 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Sunday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 4. From the 12:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target FLL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-01 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~9.5 over 88 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 1, 12:00 PM EST · 5.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-01 17:58 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 9 among Fort Lauderdale departures 6–9 PM Sunday
What changed: about 10 → 9 expected cancellations since the 12:00 PM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 88 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Sunday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 5. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target FLL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-01 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~8.7 over 88 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 1, 1:00 PM EST · 4.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-01 18:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 13 among Fort Lauderdale departures 6–9 PM Sunday
What changed: about 9 → 13 expected cancellations since the 1:00 PM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 13 of the 88 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Sunday to be cancelled (15%). With calm weather it would expect about 9. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target FLL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-01 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~13.2 over 88 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 1, 4:00 PM EST · 1.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-01 21:59 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 9 among Fort Lauderdale departures 6–9 PM Sunday
What changed: about 13 → 9 expected cancellations since the 4:00 PM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 88 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Sunday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 6. From the 5:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target FLL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-01 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~9.4 over 88 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 1, 5:00 PM EST · 0.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-01 22:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?
Closed Sun Nov 1, 6:01 PM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.