tailodds FORECAST
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Forecast Major Resolved Cancellation FLL departures

Model raises expected cancellations to about 9 among Fort Lauderdale departures 9 AM–noon Monday

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
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Updates
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

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  1. Initial Forecast

    Model expects about 9 cancellations among Fort Lauderdale departures 9 AM–noon Monday

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 73 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Monday to be cancelled (12%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetFLL departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-02 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~8.7 over 73 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 1, 11:00 AM EST · 21.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-01 16:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Updated model now expects about 19 among Fort Lauderdale departures 9 AM–noon Monday

    What changed: about 9 → 19 expected cancellations since the 11:00 AM EST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 19 of the 73 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Monday to be cancelled (26%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 8:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetFLL departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-02 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~19.1 over 73 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 1, 8:00 PM EST · 11.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-02 02:30 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers expected cancellations to about 13 among Fort Lauderdale departures 9 AM–noon Monday

    What changed: about 19 → 13 expected cancellations since the 8:00 PM EST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 13 of the 74 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Monday to be cancelled (18%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 10:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetFLL departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-02 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~13.3 over 74 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 1, 10:00 PM EST · 10.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-02 04:00 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  4. De-escalation Forecast

    Updated model now expects about 5 among Fort Lauderdale departures 9 AM–noon Monday

    What changed: about 13 → 5 expected cancellations since the 10:00 PM EST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 74 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Monday to be cancelled (7%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 11:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetFLL departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-02 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~5.1 over 74 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 1, 11:00 PM EST · 9.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-02 05:00 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  5. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises expected cancellations to about 12 among Fort Lauderdale departures 9 AM–noon Monday

    What changed: about 5 → 12 expected cancellations since the 11:00 PM EST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 12 of the 78 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Monday to be cancelled (16%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetFLL departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-02 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~12.2 over 78 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Nov 2, 4:00 AM EST · 3.3 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-02 10:42 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  6. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers expected cancellations to about 6 among Fort Lauderdale departures 9 AM–noon Monday

    What changed: about 12 → 6 expected cancellations since the 4:00 AM EST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 78 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Monday to be cancelled (7%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetFLL departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-02 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~5.8 over 78 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Nov 2, 6:00 AM EST · 2.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-02 11:58 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  7. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises expected cancellations to about 9 among Fort Lauderdale departures 9 AM–noon Monday

    What changed: about 6 → 9 expected cancellations since the 6:00 AM EST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 79 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Monday to be cancelled (12%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetFLL departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-02 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~9.3 over 79 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Nov 2, 7:00 AM EST · 0.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-02 13:58 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?

Closed Mon Nov 2, 9:00 AM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.