Model lowers Fort Lauderdale departure delay risk noon–3 PM Monday to 63%
- Current state
- Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 42% delay risk for Fort Lauderdale departures noon–3 PM Monday
Tailodds’ model gives the 66 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale noon–3 PM Monday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target FLL departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-02 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 42% over 66 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 1, 1:00 PM EST · 22.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3 Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-01 18:59 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Updated model puts Fort Lauderdale departure delay risk noon–3 PM Monday at 53%
What changed: 42% → 53% since the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 70 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale noon–3 PM Monday an average 53% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 12:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target FLL departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-02 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 53% over 70 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Mon Nov 2, 12:00 AM EST · 11.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-02 05:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises Fort Lauderdale departure delay risk noon–3 PM Monday to 56%
What changed: 53% → 56% since the 12:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 70 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale noon–3 PM Monday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 1:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target FLL departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-02 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 56% over 70 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Mon Nov 2, 1:00 AM EST · 10.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-02 06:59 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Updated model puts Fort Lauderdale departure delay risk noon–3 PM Monday at 73%
What changed: 56% → 73% since the 1:00 AM EST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 70 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale noon–3 PM Monday an average 73% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target FLL departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-02 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 73% over 70 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Mon Nov 2, 4:00 AM EST · 6.3 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-02 10:42 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers Fort Lauderdale departure delay risk noon–3 PM Monday to 63%
What changed: 73% → 63% since the 4:00 AM EST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 70 departures scheduled from Fort Lauderdale noon–3 PM Monday an average 63% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target FLL departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-02 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 63% over 70 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Mon Nov 2, 6:00 AM EST · 5.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-02 11:58 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?
Closed Mon Nov 2, 12:00 PM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.