Model lowers expected cancellations among Fort Lauderdale departures noon–3 PM Monday to about 3
- Current state
- Resolved at 9:27 AM EST
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- Updates
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model expects about 7 cancellations among Fort Lauderdale departures noon–3 PM Monday
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 66 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Monday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target FLL departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-02 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~7.0 over 66 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 1, 1:00 PM EST · 22.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3 Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-01 18:59 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 16 among Fort Lauderdale departures noon–3 PM Monday
What changed: about 7 → 16 expected cancellations since the 1:00 PM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 16 of the 70 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Monday to be cancelled (23%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 8:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target FLL departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-02 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~15.9 over 70 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 1, 8:00 PM EST · 14.5 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3 Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-02 02:30 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Updated model now expects about 10 among Fort Lauderdale departures noon–3 PM Monday
What changed: about 16 → 10 expected cancellations since the 8:00 PM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 70 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Monday to be cancelled (15%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 12:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target FLL departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-02 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~10.4 over 70 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Mon Nov 2, 12:00 AM EST · 11.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-02 05:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 4 among Fort Lauderdale departures noon–3 PM Monday
What changed: about 10 → 4 expected cancellations since the 12:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 4 of the 70 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Monday to be cancelled (6%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 1:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target FLL departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-02 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~3.9 over 70 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Mon Nov 2, 1:00 AM EST · 10.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-02 06:59 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Updated model now expects about 12 among Fort Lauderdale departures noon–3 PM Monday
What changed: about 4 → 12 expected cancellations since the 1:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 12 of the 70 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Monday to be cancelled (16%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target FLL departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-02 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~11.5 over 70 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Mon Nov 2, 4:00 AM EST · 6.3 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-02 10:42 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 6 among Fort Lauderdale departures noon–3 PM Monday
What changed: about 12 → 6 expected cancellations since the 4:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 70 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Monday to be cancelled (8%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 6:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target FLL departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-02 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~5.5 over 70 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Mon Nov 2, 6:00 AM EST · 5.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-02 11:58 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 8 among Fort Lauderdale departures noon–3 PM Monday
What changed: about 6 → 8 expected cancellations since the 6:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 69 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Monday to be cancelled (12%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target FLL departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-02 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~8.1 over 69 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Mon Nov 2, 7:00 AM EST · 3.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-02 13:58 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Resolution Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations among Fort Lauderdale departures noon–3 PM Monday to about 3
What changed: about 8 → 3
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 69 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Monday to be cancelled (4%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 8:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target FLL departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-02 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~2.5 over 69 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Mon Nov 2, 8:00 AM EST · 2.5 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-02 14:27 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?