tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 222 h staleForecast cycle 1 hLightning 222 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 7 minFAA flight data 8 min

FAA NAS status is stale (222 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (222 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Major Resolved Cancellation FLL departures

Model raises expected cancellations to about 7 among Fort Lauderdale departures 3–6 PM Sunday

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
Create monitor View FLLFlights at FLL

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model expects about 6 cancellations among Fort Lauderdale departures 3–6 PM Sunday

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 63 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Sunday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 2. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetFLL departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-01 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~6.2 over 63 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 1, 11:00 AM EST · 3.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-01 16:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?
  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises expected cancellations to about 7 among Fort Lauderdale departures 3–6 PM Sunday

    What changed: about 6 → 7 expected cancellations since the 11:00 AM EST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 64 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Sunday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 3. From the 12:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetFLL departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-01 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~7.2 over 64 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 1, 12:00 PM EST · 2.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-01 17:58 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?

Closed Sun Nov 1, 3:00 PM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.