Model lowers Austin departure delay risk 3–6 PM Tuesday to 47%, near normal
- Current state
- Resolved at 12:24 PM CST
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 3
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
-
Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 45% delay risk for Austin departures 3–6 PM Tuesday
Tailodds’ model gives the 89 departures scheduled from Austin 3–6 PM Tuesday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 5:00 PM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target AUS departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-03 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 45% over 89 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Mon Nov 2, 5:00 PM CST · 21.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3 Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-02 23:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Updated model puts Austin departure delay risk 3–6 PM Tuesday at 63%
What changed: 45% → 63% since the 5:00 PM CST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 90 departures scheduled from Austin 3–6 PM Tuesday an average 63% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 37%. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target AUS departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-03 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 63% over 90 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Tue Nov 3, 5:00 AM CST · 9.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-03 11:58 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Resolution Forecast
Model lowers Austin departure delay risk 3–6 PM Tuesday to 47%, near normal
What changed: 63% → 47%; calm-weather level 39%
Tailodds’ model gives the 91 departures scheduled from Austin 3–6 PM Tuesday an average 47% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 39%. From the 11:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target AUS departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-03 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 47% over 91 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Tue Nov 3, 11:00 AM CST · 2.6 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-03 18:24 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?