tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 1 minFAA NAS status 1 minForecast cycle 58 minLightning 1 minWeather observations 3 minFAA surface data 5 minFAA flight data 5 min
Forecast Major Resolved Delay AUS departures

Updated model puts Austin departure delay risk noon–3 PM Tuesday at 62%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 41% delay risk for Austin departures noon–3 PM Tuesday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 92 departures scheduled from Austin noon–3 PM Tuesday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 22%. From the 7:00 PM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetAUS departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-03 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)41% over 92 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Nov 2, 7:00 PM CST · 15.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-03 02:28 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Updated model puts Austin departure delay risk noon–3 PM Tuesday at 62%

    What changed: 41% → 62% since the 7:00 PM CST forecast (model changed)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 92 departures scheduled from Austin noon–3 PM Tuesday an average 62% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 31%. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetAUS departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-03 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)62% over 92 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonTue Nov 3, 5:00 AM CST · 6.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-03 11:58 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Tue Nov 3, 12:00 PM CST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.