tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 2 minFAA NAS status 2 minForecast cycle 71 minLightning 2 minWeather observations 2 minFAA surface data 4 minFAA flight data 4 min
Forecast Significant Resolved Delay AUS departures

Model forecasts 42% delay risk for Austin departures 9 AM–noon Tuesday

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

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  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 42% delay risk for Austin departures 9 AM–noon Tuesday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 61 departures scheduled from Austin 9 AM–noon Tuesday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 16%. From the 4:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetAUS departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-03 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)42% over 61 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonTue Nov 3, 4:00 AM CST · 4.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-03 10:58 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Tue Nov 3, 9:01 AM CST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.