tailodds FORECAST
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Forecast Significant Resolved Delay AUS departures

Model lowers Austin departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday to 48%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
3
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 48% delay risk for Austin departures noon–3 PM Friday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 90 departures scheduled from Austin noon–3 PM Friday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 4:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetAUS departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)48% over 90 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 6, 4:00 AM CST · 7.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-06 10:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Austin departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday to 56%

    What changed: 48% → 56% since the 4:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 90 departures scheduled from Austin noon–3 PM Friday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 8:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetAUS departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)56% over 90 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 6, 8:00 AM CST · 3.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-06 14:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers Austin departure delay risk noon–3 PM Friday to 48%

    What changed: 56% → 48% since the 8:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 90 departures scheduled from Austin noon–3 PM Friday an average 48% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 9:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetAUS departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)48% over 90 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 6, 9:00 AM CST · 2.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-06 15:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?

Closed Fri Nov 6, 12:01 PM CST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.