tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 3 minFAA NAS status 1 minForecast cycle 1 hLightning 1 minWeather observations 4 minFAA surface data 2 minFAA flight data 3 min
Forecast Significant Resolved Delay AUS departures

Model forecasts 56% delay risk for Austin departures 3–6 PM Friday

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
1
Create monitor View AUSFlights at AUS

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 56% delay risk for Austin departures 3–6 PM Friday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 85 departures scheduled from Austin 3–6 PM Friday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 39%. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetAUS departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)56% over 85 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 6, 5:00 AM CST · 9.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-06 11:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?

Closed Fri Nov 6, 3:01 PM CST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.