tailodds FORECAST
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Forecast Significant Resolved Delay AUS departures

Model raises Austin departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 77%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
3
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 65% delay risk for Austin departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 24 departures scheduled from Austin 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 65% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 47%. From the 12:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetAUS departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)65% over 24 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 6, 12:00 PM CST · 8.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-06 18:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Austin departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 73%

    What changed: 65% → 73% since the 12:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 24 departures scheduled from Austin 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 73% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 47%. From the 3:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetAUS departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)73% over 24 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 6, 3:00 PM CST · 5.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-06 21:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Austin departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 77%

    What changed: 73% → 77% since the 3:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 24 departures scheduled from Austin 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 77% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 56%. From the 7:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetAUS departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-06 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)77% over 24 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 6, 7:00 PM CST · 0.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-07 02:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Fri Nov 6, 9:01 PM CST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.