Model lowers Austin departure delay risk noon–3 PM Sunday to 37%, near normal
- Current state
- Resolved at 11:57 AM CST
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 2
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 40% delay risk for Austin departures noon–3 PM Sunday
Tailodds’ model gives the 63 departures scheduled from Austin noon–3 PM Sunday an average 40% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 23%. From the 2:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target AUS departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-08 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 40% over 63 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 8, 2:00 AM CST · 9.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-08 08:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Resolution Forecast
Model lowers Austin departure delay risk noon–3 PM Sunday to 37%, near normal
What changed: 40% → 37%; calm-weather level 29%
Tailodds’ model gives the 64 departures scheduled from Austin noon–3 PM Sunday an average 37% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 11:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target AUS departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-08 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 37% over 64 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 8, 11:00 AM CST · 0.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-08 17:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?