tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 2 minFAA NAS status 2 minForecast cycle 67 minLightning 2 minWeather observations 3 minFAA surface data 2 minFAA flight data 2 min
Forecast Major Resolved Delay AUS departures

Model raises Austin departure delay risk 6–9 PM Sunday to 73%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
3
Create monitor View AUSFlights at AUS

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 51% delay risk for Austin departures 6–9 PM Sunday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 47 departures scheduled from Austin 6–9 PM Sunday an average 51% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 6:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetAUS departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-08 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)51% over 47 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 8, 6:00 AM CST · 10.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-08 13:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?
  2. Escalation Forecast

    Updated model puts Austin departure delay risk 6–9 PM Sunday at 61%

    What changed: 51% → 61% since the 6:00 AM CST forecast (model changed)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 48 departures scheduled from Austin 6–9 PM Sunday an average 61% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 41%. From the 4:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetAUS departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-08 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)61% over 48 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 8, 4:00 PM CST · 1.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-08 22:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?
  3. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Austin departure delay risk 6–9 PM Sunday to 73%

    What changed: 61% → 73% since the 4:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 48 departures scheduled from Austin 6–9 PM Sunday an average 73% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 41%. From the 5:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetAUS departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-08 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)73% over 48 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 8, 5:00 PM CST · 0.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-08 23:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?

Closed Sun Nov 8, 6:00 PM CST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.