Model lowers expected cancellations among Newark departures 3–6 PM Thursday to about 2
- Current state
- Resolved at 5:57 AM EST
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model expects about 7 cancellations among Newark departures 3–6 PM Thursday
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 89 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Thursday to be cancelled (8%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target EWR departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-12 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~7.1 over 89 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Wed Nov 11, 4:00 PM EST · 22.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3 Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-11 21:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 9 among Newark departures 3–6 PM Thursday
What changed: about 7 → 9 expected cancellations since the 4:00 PM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 87 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Thursday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 8:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target EWR departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-12 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~9.2 over 87 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Wed Nov 11, 8:00 PM EST · 17.5 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3 Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-12 02:28 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Updated model now expects about 8 among Newark departures 3–6 PM Thursday
What changed: about 9 → 8 expected cancellations since the 8:00 PM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 87 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Thursday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target EWR departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-12 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~7.8 over 87 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Thu Nov 12, 2:00 AM EST · 11.6 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-12 08:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 4 among Newark departures 3–6 PM Thursday
What changed: about 8 → 4 expected cancellations since the 2:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 4 of the 87 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Thursday to be cancelled (4%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target EWR departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-12 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~3.9 over 87 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Thu Nov 12, 4:00 AM EST · 10.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-12 09:59 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Resolution Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations among Newark departures 3–6 PM Thursday to about 2
What changed: about 4 → 2
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 2 of the 87 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Thursday to be cancelled (2%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target EWR departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-12 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~1.7 over 87 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Thu Nov 12, 5:00 AM EST · 9.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-12 10:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?