Model lowers Newark departure delay risk noon–3 PM Thursday to 30%, near normal
- Current state
- Resolved at 3:56 AM EST
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 3
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 42% delay risk for Newark departures noon–3 PM Thursday
Tailodds’ model gives the 68 departures scheduled from Newark noon–3 PM Thursday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 12:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target EWR departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-12 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 42% over 68 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Thu Nov 12, 12:00 AM EST · 11.1 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-12 05:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Updated model puts Newark departure delay risk noon–3 PM Thursday at 55%
What changed: 42% → 55% since the 12:00 AM EST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 68 departures scheduled from Newark noon–3 PM Thursday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target EWR departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-12 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 55% over 68 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Thu Nov 12, 2:00 AM EST · 8.6 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-12 08:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Resolution Forecast
Model lowers Newark departure delay risk noon–3 PM Thursday to 30%, near normal
What changed: 55% → 30%; calm-weather level 24%
Tailodds’ model gives the 68 departures scheduled from Newark noon–3 PM Thursday an average 30% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 3:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target EWR departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-12 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 30% over 68 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Thu Nov 12, 3:00 AM EST · 8.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-12 08:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?