Model lowers expected cancellations among Newark departures noon–3 PM Thursday to about 2
- Current state
- Resolved at 2:27 AM EST
- Started
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model expects about 5 cancellations among Newark departures noon–3 PM Thursday
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 68 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Thursday to be cancelled (7%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 8:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target EWR departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-12 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~5.0 over 68 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Wed Nov 11, 8:00 PM EST · 14.5 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3 Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-12 02:28 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Resolution Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations among Newark departures noon–3 PM Thursday to about 2
What changed: about 5 → 2
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 2 of the 68 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Thursday to be cancelled (3%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 1:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target EWR departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-12 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~2.2 over 68 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Thu Nov 12, 1:00 AM EST · 9.5 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-12 07:27 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?