Model lowers expected cancellations among Newark departures 6–9 PM Thursday to about 3
- Current state
- Resolved at 9:27 AM EST
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model expects about 9 cancellations among Newark departures 6–9 PM Thursday
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 111 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Thursday to be cancelled (8%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target EWR departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-12 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~9.1 over 111 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Wed Nov 11, 7:00 PM EST · 21.6 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3 Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-12 01:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Updated model now expects about 4 among Newark departures 6–9 PM Thursday
What changed: about 9 → 4 expected cancellations since the 7:00 PM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 4 of the 114 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Thursday to be cancelled (3%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target EWR departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-12 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~3.8 over 114 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Thu Nov 12, 7:00 AM EST · 9.5 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-12 13:27 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Resolution Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations among Newark departures 6–9 PM Thursday to about 3
What changed: about 4 → 3
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 114 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Thursday to be cancelled (2%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 8:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target EWR departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-12 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~2.7 over 114 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Thu Nov 12, 8:00 AM EST · 8.5 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-12 14:27 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?