Model lowers Newark departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Thursday to 18%, near normal
- Current state
- Resolved at 3:56 AM EST
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 2
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
-
Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 45% delay risk for Newark departures 9 AM–noon Thursday
Tailodds’ model gives the 100 departures scheduled from Newark 9 AM–noon Thursday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 17%. From the 2:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target EWR departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-12 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 45% over 100 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Thu Nov 12, 2:00 AM EST · 5.6 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-12 08:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Resolution Forecast
Model lowers Newark departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Thursday to 18%, near normal
What changed: 45% → 18%; calm-weather level 17%
Tailodds’ model gives the 100 departures scheduled from Newark 9 AM–noon Thursday an average 18% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 17%. From the 3:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target EWR departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-12 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 18% over 100 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Thu Nov 12, 3:00 AM EST · 5.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-12 08:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?