tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 3 minFAA NAS status 1 minForecast cycle 74 minLightning 1 minWeather observations 5 minFAA surface data 5 minFAA flight data 5 min
Forecast Significant Resolved Delay EWR departures

Updated model puts Newark departure delay risk 3–6 PM Thursday at 58%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
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Updates
2
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 59% delay risk for Newark departures 3–6 PM Thursday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 89 departures scheduled from Newark 3–6 PM Thursday an average 59% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 32%. From the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetEWR departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)59% over 89 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonWed Nov 11, 4:00 PM EST · 22.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-11 21:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. De-escalation Forecast

    Updated model puts Newark departure delay risk 3–6 PM Thursday at 58%

    What changed: 59% → 58% since the 4:00 PM EST forecast (model changed)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 87 departures scheduled from Newark 3–6 PM Thursday an average 58% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 3:00 AM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetEWR departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-12 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)58% over 87 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonThu Nov 12, 3:00 AM EST · 11.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-12 08:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Thu Nov 12, 3:01 PM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.