tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 1 minFAA NAS status 1 minForecast cycle 2 hLightning 1 minWeather observations 5 minFAA surface data 4 minFAA flight data 4 min
Forecast Major Resolved Delay PHX departures

Model forecasts 87% delay risk for Phoenix departures 3–6 PM Friday

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
1
Create monitor View PHXFlights at PHX

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 87% delay risk for Phoenix departures 3–6 PM Friday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 113 departures scheduled from Phoenix 3–6 PM Friday an average 87% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 41%. From the 2:00 PM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetPHX departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)87% over 113 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 2:00 PM MST · 0.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 21:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?

Closed Fri Nov 13, 3:01 PM MST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.