tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 4 minFAA NAS status <1 minForecast cycle 69 minLightning 1 minWeather observations 5 minFAA surface data 3 minFAA flight data 3 min
Forecast Major Resolved Delay PHX departures

Model raises Phoenix departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 87%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
Create monitor View PHXFlights at PHX

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 68% delay risk for Phoenix departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 37 departures scheduled from Phoenix 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 68% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 44%. From the 2:00 PM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetPHX departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)68% over 37 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 2:00 PM MST · 6.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-13 21:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Phoenix departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 87%

    What changed: 68% → 87% since the 2:00 PM MST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 46 departures scheduled from Phoenix 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 87% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 49%. From the 8:00 PM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetPHX departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-13 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)87% over 46 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 8:00 PM MST · 0.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 03:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Fri Nov 13, 9:00 PM MST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.