tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 3 minFAA NAS status <1 minForecast cycle 73 minLightning <1 minWeather observations 4 minFAA surface data 2 minFAA flight data 2 min
Forecast Major Resolved Cancellation PHX departures

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 15 among Phoenix departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
5
Create monitor View PHXFlights at PHX

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model expects about 27 cancellations among Phoenix departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 27 of the 138 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (20%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 10:00 PM MST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetPHX departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~27.3 over 138 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 10:00 PM MST · 10.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 05:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?
  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises expected cancellations to about 46 among Phoenix departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

    What changed: about 27 → 46 expected cancellations since the 10:00 PM MST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 46 of the 138 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (34%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 11:00 PM MST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetPHX departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~46.3 over 138 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 11:00 PM MST · 9.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 06:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?
  3. De-escalation Forecast

    Updated model now expects about 8 among Phoenix departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

    What changed: about 46 → 8 expected cancellations since the 11:00 PM MST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 138 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (6%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 3:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetPHX departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~8.4 over 138 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 14, 3:00 AM MST · 5.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 10:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?
  4. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises expected cancellations to about 41 among Phoenix departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

    What changed: about 8 → 41 expected cancellations since the 3:00 AM MST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 41 of the 138 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (30%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetPHX departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~40.9 over 138 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 14, 5:00 AM MST · 2.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 13:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?
  5. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers expected cancellations to about 15 among Phoenix departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

    What changed: about 41 → 15 expected cancellations since the 5:00 AM MST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 15 of the 138 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 6:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetPHX departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~15.4 over 138 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 14, 6:00 AM MST · 1.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 14:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?

Closed Sat Nov 14, 9:00 AM MST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.