tailodds FORECAST
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Forecast Major Resolved Delay PHX departures

Model raises Phoenix departure delay risk 3–6 PM Saturday to 76%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
3
Create monitor View PHXFlights at PHX

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 56% delay risk for Phoenix departures 3–6 PM Saturday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 124 departures scheduled from Phoenix 3–6 PM Saturday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 5:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetPHX departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)56% over 124 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 14, 5:00 AM MST · 8.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 13:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Phoenix departure delay risk 3–6 PM Saturday to 66%

    What changed: 56% → 66% since the 5:00 AM MST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 125 departures scheduled from Phoenix 3–6 PM Saturday an average 66% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 9:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetPHX departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)66% over 125 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 14, 9:00 AM MST · 5.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 16:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Phoenix departure delay risk 3–6 PM Saturday to 76%

    What changed: 66% → 76% since the 9:00 AM MST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 122 departures scheduled from Phoenix 3–6 PM Saturday an average 76% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 36%. From the 1:00 PM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetPHX departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)76% over 122 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 14, 1:00 PM MST · 1.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 20:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Sat Nov 14, 3:00 PM MST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.