Model raises expected cancellations to about 15 among Phoenix departures 3–6 PM Saturday
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model expects about 34 cancellations among Phoenix departures 3–6 PM Saturday
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 34 of the 124 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (28%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target PHX departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~34.3 over 124 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 5:00 AM MST · 8.6 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 13:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 9 among Phoenix departures 3–6 PM Saturday
What changed: about 34 → 9 expected cancellations since the 5:00 AM MST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 124 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (7%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 6:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target PHX departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~8.9 over 124 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 6:00 AM MST · 7.6 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 14:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 15 among Phoenix departures 3–6 PM Saturday
What changed: about 9 → 15 expected cancellations since the 6:00 AM MST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 15 of the 125 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (12%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 9:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target PHX departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~14.8 over 125 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 9:00 AM MST · 5.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 16:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?