Model raises Phoenix departure delay risk 6–9 PM Saturday to 59%
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 50% delay risk for Phoenix departures 6–9 PM Saturday
Tailodds’ model gives the 53 departures scheduled from Phoenix 6–9 PM Saturday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 8:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target PHX departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 50% over 53 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 8:00 AM MST · 9.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 15:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises Phoenix departure delay risk 6–9 PM Saturday to 59%
What changed: 50% → 59% since the 8:00 AM MST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 53 departures scheduled from Phoenix 6–9 PM Saturday an average 59% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 10:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target PHX departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 59% over 53 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 10:00 AM MST · 7.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 17:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?