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Forecast Significant Resolved Delay PHX departures

Model lowers Phoenix departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 39%

Current state: Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started: Fri Nov 13, 11:00 PM MST
Latest activity: Sat Nov 14, 7:26 AM MST
Updates: 4

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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

Initial Forecast Fri Nov 13, 11:57 PM MST

Model forecasts 49% delay risk for Phoenix departures 9 AM–noon Saturday

Tailodds’ model gives the 138 departures scheduled from Phoenix 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 49% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 19%. From the 11:00 PM MST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

Evidence for this update

Target	PHX departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)
Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)	49% over 138 flights
Forecast cycle · horizon	Fri Nov 13, 11:00 PM MST · 9.0 h ahead
Model version	famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
Source event time	Fri Nov 13, 11:00 PM MST
Ingested	Fri Nov 13, 11:57 PM MST
Published here	Fri Nov 13, 11:57 PM MST (2026-11-14 06:57 UTC)
Sources	Tailodds forecast
Provenance	forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1

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De-escalation Forecast Sat Nov 14, 3:56 AM MST

Updated model puts Phoenix departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday at 37%

What changed: 49% → 37% since the 11:00 PM MST forecast (model changed)

Tailodds’ model gives the 138 departures scheduled from Phoenix 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 37% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 19%. From the 3:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

Evidence for this update

Target	PHX departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)
Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)	37% over 138 flights
Forecast cycle · horizon	Sat Nov 14, 3:00 AM MST · 5.1 h ahead
Model version	famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
Source event time	Sat Nov 14, 3:00 AM MST
Ingested	Sat Nov 14, 3:56 AM MST
Published here	Sat Nov 14, 3:56 AM MST (2026-11-14 10:56 UTC)
Sources	Tailodds forecast
Provenance	forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1

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Escalation Forecast Sat Nov 14, 4:57 AM MST

Model raises Phoenix departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 50%

What changed: 37% → 50% since the 3:00 AM MST forecast (same model, same window)

Tailodds’ model gives the 138 departures scheduled from Phoenix 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 19%. From the 4:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

Evidence for this update

Target	PHX departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)
Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)	50% over 138 flights
Forecast cycle · horizon	Sat Nov 14, 4:00 AM MST · 4.0 h ahead
Model version	famB-sd-v4i
Source event time	Sat Nov 14, 4:00 AM MST
Ingested	Sat Nov 14, 4:57 AM MST
Published here	Sat Nov 14, 4:57 AM MST (2026-11-14 11:57 UTC)
Sources	Tailodds forecast
Provenance	forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1

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De-escalation Forecast Sat Nov 14, 7:26 AM MST