tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 3 minFAA NAS status <1 minForecast cycle 2 hLightning 1 minWeather observations 3 minFAA surface data 1 minFAA flight data 1 min
Forecast Significant Resolved Cancellation PHX departures

Model lowers expected cancellations to about 6 among Phoenix departures 6–9 AM Saturday

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
3
Create monitor View PHXFlights at PHX

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model expects about 7 cancellations among Phoenix departures 6–9 AM Saturday

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 87 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 8:00 PM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetPHX departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~7.4 over 87 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 8:00 PM MST · 9.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 03:58 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?
  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises expected cancellations to about 30 among Phoenix departures 6–9 AM Saturday

    What changed: about 7 → 30 expected cancellations since the 8:00 PM MST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 30 of the 87 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (34%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 10:00 PM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetPHX departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~29.9 over 87 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 10:00 PM MST · 7.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 05:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?
  3. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers expected cancellations to about 6 among Phoenix departures 6–9 AM Saturday

    What changed: about 30 → 6 expected cancellations since the 10:00 PM MST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 87 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (7%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 3:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetPHX departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~5.7 over 87 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 14, 3:00 AM MST · 2.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 10:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?

Closed Sat Nov 14, 6:01 AM MST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.