Model raises Phoenix departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 63%
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 43% delay risk for Phoenix departures noon–3 PM Saturday
Tailodds’ model gives the 102 departures scheduled from Phoenix noon–3 PM Saturday an average 43% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 12:00 AM MST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target PHX departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 43% over 102 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 12:00 AM MST · 10.5 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 08:27 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises Phoenix departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 58%
What changed: 43% → 58% since the 12:00 AM MST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 102 departures scheduled from Phoenix noon–3 PM Saturday an average 58% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 2:00 AM MST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target PHX departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 58% over 102 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 2:00 AM MST · 9.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 09:58 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Updated model puts Phoenix departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday at 45%
What changed: 58% → 45% since the 2:00 AM MST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 102 departures scheduled from Phoenix noon–3 PM Saturday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 3:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target PHX departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 45% over 102 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 3:00 AM MST · 8.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 10:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises Phoenix departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 58%
What changed: 45% → 58% since the 3:00 AM MST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 102 departures scheduled from Phoenix noon–3 PM Saturday an average 58% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 4:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target PHX departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 58% over 102 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 4:00 AM MST · 7.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 11:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers Phoenix departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 51%
What changed: 58% → 51% since the 4:00 AM MST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 102 departures scheduled from Phoenix noon–3 PM Saturday an average 51% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 6:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target PHX departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 51% over 102 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 6:00 AM MST · 4.6 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 14:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises Phoenix departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 63%
What changed: 51% → 63% since the 6:00 AM MST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 102 departures scheduled from Phoenix noon–3 PM Saturday an average 63% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 9:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target PHX departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 63% over 102 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 9:00 AM MST · 2.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 16:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?