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Observed Major Resolved Delay PHX departures

Phoenix departure delays worsen: 75% late in the last hour

Current state: Resolved: closed without a new report (No usable measurement for 6 h; closed without a recovery report.)
Started: Sat Nov 14, 9:44 AM MST
Latest activity: Sat Nov 14, 9:25 PM MST
Updates: 10

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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

Initial Observed Sat Nov 14, 9:44 AM MST

Phoenix departures running late: 48% left 15+ min late in the last hour

Of 23 departures that took off between 8:44 AM and 9:44 AM MST, 11 left at least 15 minutes late. Phoenix typically sees 16% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

Evidence for this update

Measurement window	8:44 AM–9:44 AM MST
Sample	23 flights, 11 late (48%)
Comparison	16% typical · US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 AM hour
Median delay	14.0 min
Method	FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)
Source event time	Sat Nov 14, 9:44 AM MST
Ingested	Sat Nov 14, 9:44 AM MST
Published here	Sat Nov 14, 9:44 AM MST (2026-11-14 16:44 UTC)
Sources	Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
Provenance	observed_ops observed-ops-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1

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Escalation Observed Sat Nov 14, 1:05 PM MST

Phoenix departure delays worsen: 68% late in the last hour

What changed: late share 48% → 68%

Of 19 departures that took off between 12:05 PM and 1:05 PM MST, 13 left at least 15 minutes late. Phoenix typically sees 22% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 12 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

Evidence for this update

Measurement window	12:05 PM–1:05 PM MST
Sample	19 flights, 13 late (68%)
Comparison	22% typical · US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 12 PM hour
Median delay	41.0 min
Method	FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)
Source event time	Sat Nov 14, 1:05 PM MST
Ingested	Sat Nov 14, 1:05 PM MST
Published here	Sat Nov 14, 1:05 PM MST (2026-11-14 20:05 UTC)
Sources	Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
Provenance	observed_ops observed-ops-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1

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De-escalation Observed Sat Nov 14, 1:57 PM MST

Phoenix departure delays ease: 50% late in the last hour, still above normal

What changed: late share 68% → 50%

Of 22 departures that took off between 12:57 PM and 1:57 PM MST, 11 left at least 15 minutes late. Phoenix typically sees 24% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

Evidence for this update

Measurement window	12:57 PM–1:57 PM MST
Sample	22 flights, 11 late (50%)
Comparison	24% typical · US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour
Median delay	18.0 min
Method	FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)
Source event time	Sat Nov 14, 1:57 PM MST
Ingested	Sat Nov 14, 1:57 PM MST
Published here	Sat Nov 14, 1:57 PM MST (2026-11-14 20:57 UTC)
Sources	Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
Provenance	observed_ops observed-ops-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1

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Escalation Observed Sat Nov 14, 2:50 PM MST

Phoenix departure delays worsen: 75% late in the last hour

What changed: late share 50% → 75%

Of 12 departures that took off between 1:50 PM and 2:50 PM MST, 9 left at least 15 minutes late. Phoenix typically sees 27% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 2 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

Evidence for this update

Measurement window	1:50 PM–2:50 PM MST
Sample	12 flights, 9 late (75%)
Comparison	27% typical · US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 2 PM hour
Median delay	53.0 min
Method	FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)
Source event time	Sat Nov 14, 2:50 PM MST
Ingested	Sat Nov 14, 2:50 PM MST
Published here	Sat Nov 14, 2:50 PM MST (2026-11-14 21:50 UTC)
Sources	Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
Provenance	observed_ops observed-ops-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1

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De-escalation Observed Sat Nov 14, 3:11 PM MST

Phoenix departure delays ease: 61% late in the last hour, still above normal

What changed: late share 75% → 61%

Of 18 departures that took off between 2:11 PM and 3:11 PM MST, 11 left at least 15 minutes late. Phoenix typically sees 27% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 2 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

Evidence for this update

Measurement window	2:11 PM–3:11 PM MST
Sample	18 flights, 11 late (61%)
Comparison	27% typical · US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 2 PM hour
Median delay	40.0 min
Method	FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)
Source event time	Sat Nov 14, 3:11 PM MST
Ingested	Sat Nov 14, 3:11 PM MST
Published here	Sat Nov 14, 3:11 PM MST (2026-11-14 22:11 UTC)
Sources	Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
Provenance	observed_ops observed-ops-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1

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Escalation Observed Sat Nov 14, 3:35 PM MST

Phoenix departure delays worsen: 71% late in the last hour

What changed: late share 61% → 71%

Of 31 departures that took off between 2:35 PM and 3:35 PM MST, 22 left at least 15 minutes late. Phoenix typically sees 29% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 3 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

Evidence for this update

Measurement window	2:35 PM–3:35 PM MST
Sample	31 flights, 22 late (71%)
Comparison	29% typical · US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 3 PM hour
Median delay	53.0 min
Method	FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)
Source event time	Sat Nov 14, 3:35 PM MST
Ingested	Sat Nov 14, 3:35 PM MST
Published here	Sat Nov 14, 3:35 PM MST (2026-11-14 22:35 UTC)
Sources	Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
Provenance	observed_ops observed-ops-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1

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De-escalation Observed Sat Nov 14, 6:42 PM MST

Phoenix departure delays ease: 67% late in the last hour, still above normal

What changed: late share 71% → 67%

Of 24 departures that took off between 5:42 PM and 6:42 PM MST, 16 left at least 15 minutes late. Phoenix typically sees 36% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

Evidence for this update

Measurement window	5:42 PM–6:42 PM MST
Sample	24 flights, 16 late (67%)
Comparison	36% typical · US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour
Median delay	40.0 min
Method	FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)
Source event time	Sat Nov 14, 6:42 PM MST
Ingested	Sat Nov 14, 6:42 PM MST
Published here	Sat Nov 14, 6:42 PM MST (2026-11-15 01:42 UTC)
Sources	Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
Provenance	observed_ops observed-ops-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1

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Escalation Observed Sat Nov 14, 7:27 PM MST

Phoenix departure delays worsen: 86% late in the last hour

What changed: late share 67% → 86%

Of 14 departures that took off between 6:27 PM and 7:27 PM MST, 12 left at least 15 minutes late. Phoenix typically sees 36% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

Evidence for this update

Measurement window	6:27 PM–7:27 PM MST
Sample	14 flights, 12 late (86%)
Comparison	36% typical · US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour
Median delay	73.0 min
Method	FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)
Source event time	Sat Nov 14, 7:27 PM MST
Ingested	Sat Nov 14, 7:27 PM MST
Published here	Sat Nov 14, 7:27 PM MST (2026-11-15 02:27 UTC)
Sources	Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
Provenance	observed_ops observed-ops-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1

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De-escalation Observed Sat Nov 14, 8:45 PM MST

Phoenix departure delays ease: 63% late in the last hour, still above normal

What changed: late share 86% → 63%

Of 19 departures that took off between 7:45 PM and 8:45 PM MST, 12 left at least 15 minutes late. Phoenix typically sees 32% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

Evidence for this update

Measurement window	7:45 PM–8:45 PM MST
Sample	19 flights, 12 late (63%)
Comparison	32% typical · US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour
Median delay	102.0 min
Method	FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)
Source event time	Sat Nov 14, 8:45 PM MST
Ingested	Sat Nov 14, 8:45 PM MST
Published here	Sat Nov 14, 8:45 PM MST (2026-11-15 03:45 UTC)
Sources	Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
Provenance	observed_ops observed-ops-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1

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Escalation Observed Sat Nov 14, 9:25 PM MST

Phoenix departure delays worsen: 75% late in the last hour

What changed: late share 63% → 75%

Of 28 departures that took off between 8:25 PM and 9:25 PM MST, 21 left at least 15 minutes late. Phoenix typically sees 32% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

Evidence for this update

Measurement window	8:25 PM–9:25 PM MST
Sample	28 flights, 21 late (75%)
Comparison	32% typical · US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour
Median delay	145.0 min
Method	FAA wheels-off/on +/- median taxi (taxi_times) vs the FAA-filed airline schedule (flight_odds)
Source event time	Sat Nov 14, 9:25 PM MST
Ingested	Sat Nov 14, 9:25 PM MST
Published here	Sat Nov 14, 9:25 PM MST (2026-11-15 04:25 UTC)
Sources	Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules
Provenance	observed_ops observed-ops-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1

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Closed Sun Nov 15, 4:12 AM MST: No usable measurement for 6 h; closed without a recovery report.

Latest update at a glance

Evidence type	Observed: Tailodds measured a change in actual operations.
Published	Sat Nov 14, 9:25 PM MST
Evidence ingested	Sat Nov 14, 9:25 PM MST

Affected

PHX departures
Airlines: not specified by the source

Sources

Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules fetched 9:44 AM MST · id PHX:departures:2026-11-14T16:44:00+00:00 · hash afb95f69eee7
Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules fetched 1:05 PM MST · id PHX:departures:2026-11-14T20:05:00+00:00 · hash c179b512d47d
Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules fetched 1:57 PM MST · id PHX:departures:2026-11-14T20:57:00+00:00 · hash df0d067c3940
Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules fetched 2:50 PM MST · id PHX:departures:2026-11-14T21:50:00+00:00 · hash 0401afb03685
Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules fetched 3:11 PM MST · id PHX:departures:2026-11-14T22:11:00+00:00 · hash 1ac1b88d634b
Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules fetched 3:35 PM MST · id PHX:departures:2026-11-14T22:35:00+00:00 · hash 8739f917e7f6
Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules fetched 6:42 PM MST · id PHX:departures:2026-11-15T01:42:00+00:00 · hash a4d5d2805372
Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules fetched 7:27 PM MST · id PHX:departures:2026-11-15T02:27:00+00:00 · hash 15d40661ea7e
Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules fetched 8:45 PM MST · id PHX:departures:2026-11-15T03:45:00+00:00 · hash c0056ab5df98
Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedules fetched 9:25 PM MST · id PHX:departures:2026-11-15T04:25:00+00:00 · hash cbb35da68834

Related, not linked by cause

Updated model now expects about 10 among Phoenix departures noon–3 PM Sunday Cancellation · Resolved · 7:56 AM
Updated model puts Phoenix departure delay risk noon–3 PM Sunday at 56% Delay · Resolved · 7:25 AM
Model raises expected cancellations to about 14 among Phoenix departures 9 AM–noon Sunday Cancellation · Resolved · 6:26 AM
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 8 among Phoenix departures 6–9 AM Sunday Cancellation · Resolved · 2:58 AM
Model lowers Phoenix departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Sunday to 47% Delay · Resolved · 2:58 AM
Model lowers Phoenix departure delay risk 6–9 AM Sunday to 29%, near normal Delay · Resolved · 2:58 AM
Phoenix arrival delays ease: 57% late in the last hour, still above normal Delay · Resolved · 12:26 AM
Model raises Phoenix departure delay risk 6–9 PM Saturday to 72% Delay · Resolved · 2:56 PM

Same airport, overlapping in time. We don’t claim one caused the other.