Model lowers Phoenix departure delay risk 6–9 AM Sunday to 29%, near normal
- Current state
- Resolved at 2:58 AM MST
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 2
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 44% delay risk for Phoenix departures 6–9 AM Sunday
Tailodds’ model gives the 97 departures scheduled from Phoenix 6–9 AM Sunday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 10%. From the 11:00 PM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target PHX departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-15 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 44% over 97 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 11:00 PM MST · 5.6 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 07:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Resolution Forecast
Model lowers Phoenix departure delay risk 6–9 AM Sunday to 29%, near normal
What changed: 44% → 29%; calm-weather level 11%
Tailodds’ model gives the 98 departures scheduled from Phoenix 6–9 AM Sunday an average 29% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 11%. From the 2:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target PHX departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-15 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 29% over 98 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 2:00 AM MST · 3.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 09:58 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?