Model raises expected cancellations to about 14 among Phoenix departures 9 AM–noon Sunday
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- Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model expects about 10 cancellations among Phoenix departures 9 AM–noon Sunday
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 150 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Sunday to be cancelled (7%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 10:00 PM MST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target PHX departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-15 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~9.9 over 150 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 10:00 PM MST · 10.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 05:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Updated model now expects about 16 among Phoenix departures 9 AM–noon Sunday
What changed: about 10 → 16 expected cancellations since the 10:00 PM MST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 16 of the 150 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Sunday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 11:00 PM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target PHX departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-15 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~15.8 over 150 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 11:00 PM MST · 8.6 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 07:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 14 among Phoenix departures 9 AM–noon Sunday
What changed: about 16 → 14 expected cancellations since the 11:00 PM MST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 14 of the 150 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Sunday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 1:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target PHX departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-15 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~14.3 over 150 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 1:00 AM MST · 7.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 08:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 7 among Phoenix departures 9 AM–noon Sunday
What changed: about 14 → 7 expected cancellations since the 1:00 AM MST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 150 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Sunday to be cancelled (5%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 3:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target PHX departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-15 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~7.0 over 150 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 3:00 AM MST · 5.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 10:55 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 14 among Phoenix departures 9 AM–noon Sunday
What changed: about 7 → 14 expected cancellations since the 3:00 AM MST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 14 of the 150 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Sunday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target PHX departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-15 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~13.7 over 150 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 5:00 AM MST · 2.6 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 13:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?
Closed Sun Nov 15, 9:01 AM MST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.