Model raises expected cancellations to about 12 among Phoenix departures 6–9 PM Sunday
- Current state
- Developing
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 2
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
-
Initial Forecast
Model expects about 8 cancellations among Phoenix departures 6–9 PM Sunday
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 107 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Sunday to be cancelled (8%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 8:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target PHX departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-15 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~8.2 over 107 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 8:00 AM MST · 9.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 15:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 12 among Phoenix departures 6–9 PM Sunday
What changed: about 8 → 12 expected cancellations since the 8:00 AM MST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 12 of the 107 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Sunday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 11:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target PHX departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-15 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~12.1 over 107 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 11:00 AM MST · 5.6 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 19:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?