Model raises Phoenix departure delay risk 3–6 PM Sunday to 62%
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 54% delay risk for Phoenix departures 3–6 PM Sunday
Tailodds’ model gives the 120 departures scheduled from Phoenix 3–6 PM Sunday an average 54% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 37%. From the 5:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target PHX departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-15 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 54% over 120 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 5:00 AM MST · 8.6 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 13:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises Phoenix departure delay risk 3–6 PM Sunday to 62%
What changed: 54% → 62% since the 5:00 AM MST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 120 departures scheduled from Phoenix 3–6 PM Sunday an average 62% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 37%. From the 9:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target PHX departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-15 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 62% over 120 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 9:00 AM MST · 5.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 16:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?