tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 4 minFAA NAS status 1 minForecast cycle 87 minLightning 2 minWeather observations 3 minFAA surface data 6 minFAA flight data 6 min
Forecast Major Developing Cancellation PHX departures

Model raises expected cancellations to about 14 among Phoenix departures 3–6 PM Sunday

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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

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  1. Initial Forecast

    Model expects about 8 cancellations among Phoenix departures 3–6 PM Sunday

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 120 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Sunday to be cancelled (7%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetPHX departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-15 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~8.0 over 120 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 15, 5:00 AM MST · 8.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-15 13:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises expected cancellations to about 14 among Phoenix departures 3–6 PM Sunday

    What changed: about 8 → 14 expected cancellations since the 5:00 AM MST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 14 of the 120 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Sunday to be cancelled (12%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 11:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetPHX departures 3–6 PM 2026-11-15 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~14.0 over 120 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 15, 11:00 AM MST · 2.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-15 19:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?