Updated model now expects about 9 among Phoenix departures 9 PM–midnight Sunday
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model expects about 5 cancellations among Phoenix departures 9 PM–midnight Sunday
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 77 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Sunday to be cancelled (7%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 10:00 AM MST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target PHX departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-15 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~5.4 over 77 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 10:00 AM MST · 10.1 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 17:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Updated model now expects about 9 among Phoenix departures 9 PM–midnight Sunday
What changed: about 5 → 9 expected cancellations since the 10:00 AM MST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 77 departures scheduled 9 PM–midnight Sunday to be cancelled (12%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 11:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target PHX departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-11-15 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~9.4 over 77 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 11:00 AM MST · 8.6 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 19:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?