tailodds FORECAST
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Forecast Significant Resolved Cancellation PHX departures

Updated model now expects about 10 among Phoenix departures noon–3 PM Sunday

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
Create monitor View PHXFlights at PHX

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model expects about 6 cancellations among Phoenix departures noon–3 PM Sunday

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 112 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Sunday to be cancelled (6%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 1:00 AM MST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetPHX departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-15 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~6.4 over 112 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 15, 1:00 AM MST · 10.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-15 08:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Updated model now expects about 10 among Phoenix departures noon–3 PM Sunday

    What changed: about 6 → 10 expected cancellations since the 1:00 AM MST forecast

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 112 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Sunday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetPHX departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-15 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~10.1 over 112 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 15, 7:00 AM MST · 4.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-15 14:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Sun Nov 15, 12:01 PM MST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.