tailodds FORECAST
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Forecast Major Resolved Delay PHX departures

Updated model puts Phoenix departure delay risk noon–3 PM Sunday at 56%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
Create monitor View PHXFlights at PHX

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 46% delay risk for Phoenix departures noon–3 PM Sunday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 112 departures scheduled from Phoenix noon–3 PM Sunday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 12:00 AM MST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetPHX departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-15 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)46% over 112 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 15, 12:00 AM MST · 10.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-15 08:27 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Updated model puts Phoenix departure delay risk noon–3 PM Sunday at 56%

    What changed: 46% → 56% since the 12:00 AM MST forecast (model changed)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 112 departures scheduled from Phoenix noon–3 PM Sunday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 6:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetPHX departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-15 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)56% over 112 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 15, 6:00 AM MST · 4.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update)
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-15 14:25 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Sun Nov 15, 12:01 PM MST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.