tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 3 minFAA NAS status 2 minForecast cycle 2 hLightning 2 minWeather observations 2 minFAA surface data 7 minFAA flight data 5 min
Forecast Significant Resolved Delay PHX departures

Model lowers Phoenix departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Sunday to 47%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
Create monitor View PHXFlights at PHX

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 63% delay risk for Phoenix departures 9 AM–noon Sunday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 150 departures scheduled from Phoenix 9 AM–noon Sunday an average 63% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 18%. From the 11:00 PM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetPHX departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-15 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)63% over 150 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSat Nov 14, 11:00 PM MST · 8.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-15 07:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers Phoenix departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Sunday to 47%

    What changed: 63% → 47% since the 11:00 PM MST forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 150 departures scheduled from Phoenix 9 AM–noon Sunday an average 47% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 18%. From the 2:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetPHX departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-15 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)47% over 150 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonSun Nov 15, 2:00 AM MST · 6.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-15 09:58 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Sun Nov 15, 9:01 AM MST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.