Model lowers expected cancellations to about 8 among Phoenix departures 6–9 AM Sunday
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- Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model expects about 6 cancellations among Phoenix departures 6–9 AM Sunday
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 97 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Sunday to be cancelled (6%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 6:00 PM MST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target PHX departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-15 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~5.5 over 97 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 6:00 PM MST · 10.5 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 02:27 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 10 among Phoenix departures 6–9 AM Sunday
What changed: about 6 → 10 expected cancellations since the 6:00 PM MST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 97 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Sunday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 PM MST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target PHX departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-15 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~9.5 over 97 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 7:00 PM MST · 10.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 02:58 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Updated model now expects about 20 among Phoenix departures 6–9 AM Sunday
What changed: about 10 → 20 expected cancellations since the 7:00 PM MST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 20 of the 97 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Sunday to be cancelled (21%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 8:00 PM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target PHX departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-15 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~20.3 over 97 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 8:00 PM MST · 9.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 03:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 13 among Phoenix departures 6–9 AM Sunday
What changed: about 20 → 13 expected cancellations since the 8:00 PM MST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 13 of the 97 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Sunday to be cancelled (13%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 9:00 PM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target PHX departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-15 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~12.9 over 97 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 9:00 PM MST · 8.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 04:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 8 among Phoenix departures 6–9 AM Sunday
What changed: about 13 → 8 expected cancellations since the 9:00 PM MST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 98 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Sunday to be cancelled (8%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 2:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target PHX departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-15 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~7.7 over 98 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 15, 2:00 AM MST · 3.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-15 09:58 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?
Closed Sun Nov 15, 6:00 AM MST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.