Model lowers expected cancellations to about 10 among Phoenix departures noon–3 PM Saturday
- Current state
- Developing
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 6
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
-
Initial Forecast
Model expects about 16 cancellations among Phoenix departures noon–3 PM Saturday
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 16 of the 102 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (16%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 12:00 AM MST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target PHX departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~16.0 over 102 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 12:00 AM MST · 10.5 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 08:27 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 21 among Phoenix departures noon–3 PM Saturday
What changed: about 16 → 21 expected cancellations since the 12:00 AM MST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 21 of the 102 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (21%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 1:00 AM MST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target PHX departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~21.4 over 102 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 1:00 AM MST · 10.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 08:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 32 among Phoenix departures noon–3 PM Saturday
What changed: about 21 → 32 expected cancellations since the 1:00 AM MST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 32 of the 102 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (31%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 2:00 AM MST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target PHX departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~31.5 over 102 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 2:00 AM MST · 9.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 09:58 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Updated model now expects about 6 among Phoenix departures noon–3 PM Saturday
What changed: about 32 → 6 expected cancellations since the 2:00 AM MST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 102 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (5%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 3:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target PHX departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~5.6 over 102 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 3:00 AM MST · 8.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 10:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 30 among Phoenix departures noon–3 PM Saturday
What changed: about 6 → 30 expected cancellations since the 3:00 AM MST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 30 of the 102 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (29%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target PHX departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~29.6 over 102 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 5:00 AM MST · 5.6 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 13:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 10 among Phoenix departures noon–3 PM Saturday
What changed: about 30 → 10 expected cancellations since the 5:00 AM MST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 102 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 6:00 AM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target PHX departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~10.2 over 102 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 6:00 AM MST · 4.6 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 14:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?