tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 4 minFAA NAS status 1 minForecast cycle 74 minLightning 1 minWeather observations 5 minFAA surface data 3 minFAA flight data 3 min
Forecast Major Resolved Cancellation PHX departures

Model expects about 6 cancellations among Phoenix departures midnight–3 AM Saturday

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
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Create monitor View PHXFlights at PHX

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

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  1. Initial Forecast

    Model expects about 6 cancellations among Phoenix departures midnight–3 AM Saturday

    Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 16 departures scheduled midnight–3 AM Saturday to be cancelled (40%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 10:00 PM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetPHX departures midnight–3 AM 2026-11-14 (cancelled)
    Expected cancellations~6.4 over 16 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 10:00 PM MST · 1.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 05:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Sat Nov 14, 12:01 AM MST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.