tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 4 minFAA NAS status 2 minForecast cycle 2 hLightning 2 minWeather observations 3 minFAA surface data 7 minFAA flight data 5 min
Forecast Significant Resolved Delay PHX departures

Model forecasts 45% delay risk for Phoenix departures midnight–3 AM Saturday

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
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Create monitor View PHXFlights at PHX

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

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  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 45% delay risk for Phoenix departures midnight–3 AM Saturday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 16 departures scheduled from Phoenix midnight–3 AM Saturday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 18%. From the 8:00 PM MST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetPHX departures midnight–3 AM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)45% over 16 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Nov 13, 8:00 PM MST · 3.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-11-14 03:58 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Sat Nov 14, 12:01 AM MST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.