Model lowers expected cancellations to about 6 among San Diego departures 6–9 AM Saturday
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- Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model expects about 7 cancellations among San Diego departures 6–9 AM Saturday
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 7 of the 57 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (12%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 6:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target SAN departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~7.0 over 57 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 6:00 PM PST · 11.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 02:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 13 among San Diego departures 6–9 AM Saturday
What changed: about 7 → 13 expected cancellations since the 6:00 PM PST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 13 of the 57 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (23%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 7:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target SAN departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~13.0 over 57 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 7:00 PM PST · 10.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 03:58 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Updated model now expects about 29 among San Diego departures 6–9 AM Saturday
What changed: about 13 → 29 expected cancellations since the 7:00 PM PST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 29 of the 57 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (51%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 8:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target SAN departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~28.8 over 57 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 8:00 PM PST · 9.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 04:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 27 among San Diego departures 6–9 AM Saturday
What changed: about 29 → 27 expected cancellations since the 8:00 PM PST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 27 of the 57 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (47%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 11:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target SAN departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~26.9 over 57 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 11:00 PM PST · 5.5 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 08:27 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 11 among San Diego departures 6–9 AM Saturday
What changed: about 27 → 11 expected cancellations since the 11:00 PM PST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 11 of the 57 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (20%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 12:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target SAN departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~11.4 over 57 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 12:00 AM PST · 5.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 08:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 8 among San Diego departures 6–9 AM Saturday
What changed: about 11 → 8 expected cancellations since the 12:00 AM PST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 57 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (14%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 1:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target SAN departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~8.2 over 57 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 1:00 AM PST · 4.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 09:58 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 6 among San Diego departures 6–9 AM Saturday
What changed: about 8 → 6 expected cancellations since the 1:00 AM PST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 57 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target SAN departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~6.5 over 57 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 4:00 AM PST · 0.6 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 13:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?
Closed Sat Nov 14, 6:01 AM PST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.