Model raises expected cancellations to about 21 among San Diego departures noon–3 PM Saturday
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Initial Forecast
Model expects about 5 cancellations among San Diego departures noon–3 PM Saturday
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 58 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 4:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target SAN departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~5.2 over 58 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 4:00 AM PST · 6.6 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 13:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 21 among San Diego departures noon–3 PM Saturday
What changed: about 5 → 21 expected cancellations since the 4:00 AM PST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 21 of the 58 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (36%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target SAN departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~20.7 over 58 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 5:00 AM PST · 5.6 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 14:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?