Model lowers San Diego departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 35%
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 49% delay risk for San Diego departures 9 AM–noon Saturday
Tailodds’ model gives the 67 departures scheduled from San Diego 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 49% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 16%. From the 11:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target SAN departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 49% over 67 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 11:00 PM PST · 8.5 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 08:27 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers San Diego departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Saturday to 35%
What changed: 49% → 35% since the 11:00 PM PST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 67 departures scheduled from San Diego 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 35% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 16%. From the 1:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target SAN departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 35% over 67 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 1:00 AM PST · 7.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 09:58 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?