Model lowers expected cancellations to about 8 among San Diego departures 9 AM–noon Saturday
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model expects about 14 cancellations among San Diego departures 9 AM–noon Saturday
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 14 of the 67 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (21%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 9:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target SAN departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~13.8 over 67 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 9:00 PM PST · 11.1 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 05:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 21 among San Diego departures 9 AM–noon Saturday
What changed: about 14 → 21 expected cancellations since the 9:00 PM PST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 21 of the 67 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (31%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 10:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target SAN departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~20.8 over 67 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 10:00 PM PST · 10.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 06:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Updated model now expects about 29 among San Diego departures 9 AM–noon Saturday
What changed: about 21 → 29 expected cancellations since the 10:00 PM PST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 29 of the 67 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (44%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 11:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target SAN departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~29.2 over 67 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 11:00 PM PST · 8.5 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 08:27 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 9 among San Diego departures 9 AM–noon Saturday
What changed: about 29 → 9 expected cancellations since the 11:00 PM PST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 67 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (13%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 12:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target SAN departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~8.6 over 67 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 12:00 AM PST · 8.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 08:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 6 among San Diego departures 9 AM–noon Saturday
What changed: about 9 → 6 expected cancellations since the 12:00 AM PST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 67 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 1:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target SAN departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~6.3 over 67 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 1:00 AM PST · 7.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 09:58 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 8 among San Diego departures 9 AM–noon Saturday
What changed: about 6 → 8 expected cancellations since the 1:00 AM PST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 67 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (11%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 3:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target SAN departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~7.6 over 67 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 3:00 AM PST · 5.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 11:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 26 among San Diego departures 9 AM–noon Saturday
What changed: about 8 → 26 expected cancellations since the 3:00 AM PST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 26 of the 67 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (39%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 5:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target SAN departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~26.2 over 67 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 5:00 AM PST · 2.6 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 14:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 8 among San Diego departures 9 AM–noon Saturday
What changed: about 26 → 8 expected cancellations since the 5:00 AM PST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 67 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (13%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 6:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target SAN departures 9 AM–noon 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~8.4 over 67 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 6:00 AM PST · 2.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 14:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?